Global food and feed prices are showing a clear and steady trend in recent years: Up! While demand is growing due to an increasing world population that is consuming more food in general and more nutritious food in specific, the cost of agricultural inputs such as mineral fertilizer, pesticides, fuel and transport are rising sharply due to the increasing scarcity of fossil fuels. With no radical cheap energy technologies in the near term pipeline and losing fertile farmland to urban use, the cost of food and feed production will continue to rise.

High volume, slow transport commodities such as wheat and soy beans will continue to be produced at low cost in extensive agricultural systems such as in Kazakhstan and Brazil. More perishable produce however will need to be produced closer to the final consumer. Local production will replace exotic produce such as beans from Kenya, tomatoes from Morocco and melons from Ecuador.

To be able to grow enough local produce varieties need to be improved:

• Plant yields have to be increased without the need for more mineral fertilizer.
• Pest and disease resistance must be improved as older, less environmentally sensitive pesticides are phased out and urban consumers demand pest-free, pesticide-free products.
• Stress resistance must be improved as climate change and the shortage of good land force plants to survive drought, flooding and higher average temperatures.

Although some yield increase is possible from improved cultivation techniques, growers and consumers will have to embrace the full range of available technologies to enjoy plentiful, healthy, nutritious and safe food well into the future. Knowledge of genetics will enhance seed breeding as well as permit targeted genetic modification. Both technologies should be supported with science-based objective regulatory systems.